“And the Oscar Goes to …”: Our 2020 Academy Awards Predictions

Mendes’s closest challenger is Bong Joon-ho, as this category could be the perfect place to reward the widely beloved Parasite, and splits between Best Picture and Best Director are common at the Oscars. But given that 1917, with its faux one-take camerawork, is so visually dynamic, Mendes remains the one to beat.

Who Will Win: Sam Mendes

Who Ought to Win: Bong Joon-ho

Best Cinematography

Nominees: Jarin Blaschke (The Lighthouse), Roger Deakins (1917), Rodrigo Prieto (The Irishman), Robert Richardson (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood), Lawrence Sher (Joker)

The technical categories will be 1917’s chance to clean up, and its camerawork is virtually guaranteed a big win. Deakins, one of the most respected cinematographers alive, waited decades for his first Oscar, winning in 2018 for Blade Runner 2049 after 13 nominations. He should easily collect his second on Sunday, sweeping aside other Best Picture nominees and The Lighthouse, a fun and surprising inclusion for its grainy, black-and-white moodiness.

Who Will Win: Roger Deakins

Who Ought to Win: Jarin Blaschke

Best Original Screenplay

Nominees: Noah Baumbach (Marriage Story), Bong Joon-ho & Han Jin-won (Parasite), Rian Johnson (Knives Out), Sam Mendes & Krysty Wilson-Cairns (1917), Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)

A loaded category this year means that a strong contender like Baumbach (who has never won an Oscar) is likely on the outside looking in. This race seems to be between two titans: Tarantino, the two-time winner for writing, and Bong. I’d give a slight edge to Bong, who has collected several precursors; along with Best International Film, this is where voters will look to recognize Parasite.

What Will Win: Bong Joon-ho & Han Jin-won

What Ought to Win: Bong Joon-ho & Han Jin-won

Best Adapted Screenplay

Nominees: Greta Gerwig (Little Women), Anthony McCarten (The Two Popes), Todd Phillips & Scott Silver (Joker), Taika Waititi (Jojo Rabbit), Steven Zaillian (The Irishman)

This contest comes down to two pieces of radical adaptation for Best Picture nominees. Waititi’s Jojo Rabbit is a comical take on a serious book (Caging Skies by Christine Leunens), transforming an internal tale of a young Nazi’s coming-of-age into a slapstick farce. Gerwig took Louisa May Alcott’s beloved novel and chopped it into pieces, cutting between its two timelines with verve and energy to highlight its brilliant parallel storytelling. I preferred Gerwig’s film, but Waititi seems to have the edge for the Oscars, having won the BAFTA and the Writer’s Guild awards.

What Will Win: Jojo Rabbit

What Ought to Win: Little Women

Best Picture

Nominees: Ford v Ferrari, The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Joker, Little Women, Marriage Story, 1917, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Parasite