The 2020 U.S. Presidential Race: A Cheat Sheet

Today, Bernie Sanders called a press conference in New Hampshire to declare himself the winner of the Iowa caucus. Which would be fine—after all, he won the popular vote in the caucus—if not for one complicating factor: Pete Buttigieg had already declared victory in the Iowa caucus, because he is leading in the estimate of delegates won.

Even stranger, this conflict might exist even if the Iowa Democratic Party hadn’t proved itself inept at counting the votes. That’s because under new rules this year, the party for the first time reported out several sets of numbers from the caucus—allowing different campaigns to claim wins under different metrics. Meanwhile, the full results of the caucus are still not available, and those that have been reported are dubious at best. It’s clear who the big loser is: the Iowa Democrats, who seem likely to forfeit their vaunted first-contest status over the debacle.

Even without full or accurate results, and despite the contested call, Sanders and Buttigieg really are both winners. Sanders had hoped to do even better than he did, to win an uncontested victory and sweep delegates. That hasn’t happened yet, although the votes are still being counted. But for now, coming out of the caucus having won the popular vote is good enough, especially because the race now heads to New Hampshire and then Nevada, both states in which he is the front-runner. Most important, he’s now the national front-runner for the Democratic nomination, too, a stunning turn for a candidate who just a few years ago was a little-known, crusty, socialist backbencher.

As for Buttigieg, he far exceeded expectations, even if his hasty declaration of victory Monday night ends up being premature. The former South Bend, Indiana, mayor was projected to do well in Iowa, but he has barely made it onto the radar in other states. He needed a splashy victory to build momentum, and he got it—though the fracas over the results may deprive him of some of the attention he would have otherwise received.

The IDP isn’t the only loser. The big flop of the caucus is Joe Biden, who finished even more weakly than expected, at a distant fourth. He’s now facing serious questions about viability and fundraising that are even more embarrassing because of his eminence in the party. New Hampshire probably won’t be great for him, either. The question is whether he can limp on to South Carolina, where polls still show him leading, for now. Elizabeth Warren didn’t have a great showing in Iowa either, despite a ground operation that was covered lavishly early on—though she at least edged Biden. Amy Klobuchar, who some pundits predicted would beat expectations, ended up in fifth. The less said about Andrew Yang’s underwhelming results, the better; he fired staffers over them today. None of the other candidates is even worth naming.

These candidates’ struggles help Sanders and Buttigieg, too. A stronger Warren finish would have made it harder for Sanders to consolidate left-wing support. Meanwhile, a Biden collapse, as well as a Klobuchar disappearance, could help Buttigieg emerge as a viable moderate alternative to Sanders.

As the primaries progress, this cheat sheet will be updated regularly.

The Democrats

MICHAEL BLOOMBERG

Who is he?

The billionaire former mayor of New York, Bloomberg is a Democrat turned Republican turned independent turned Democrat again.

Is he running?

Yes. Having ruled out a run in March, hizzoner changed his mind in early November and officially launched his campaign on November 24.

Why does he want to run?

For starters, he is convinced that he’d be better and more competent at the job than anyone else. Bloomberg’s bid will likely center on his pet issues of gun control, climate change, and fighting the more fiscally liberal wing of the Democratic Party tooth and silver-plated nail.

Who wants him to run?

What, is his considerable ego not enough? Though his tenure as mayor is generally well regarded, it’s unclear what Bloomberg’s Democratic constituency is beyond other wealthy, socially liberal, and fiscally conservative types, and it’s not as if he needs their money to run.

Can he win the nomination?

Who even knows anymore? His lavish spending has helped Bloomberg gain a toehold in polls, and Joe Biden’s Iowa collapse could drive moderates to alternatives like hizzoner.

DEVAL PATRICK

Who is he?

Patrick was governor of Massachusetts from 2007 to 2015, after serving in a top role in Bill Clinton’s Justice Department. More recently, he’s worked at Bain Capital.

Is he running?

Yes. Patrick officially entered the race on November 14.

Why does he want to run?

To be president, of course. But having passed on a run earlier, Patrick reconsidered because of worries that no one in the Democratic field has strong momentum and can unite the party.

Who wants him to run?

There’s an appetite for new candidates among some in the Democratic donor class, though there’s little sign that voters are so eager. Patrick is close to Barack Obama, but the former president has stayed out of the primary.

Can he win?

We’re not saying that a former Massachusetts governor and Bain employee can’t win the presidency, but recent history isn’t encouraging. But take it from Patrick: “I recognize running for president is a Hail Mary under any circumstances. This is a Hail Mary from two stadiums over.”

What else do we know?

Patrick’s estranged father played in the alien jazz great Sun Ra’s Arkestra.

TOM STEYER

Who is he?

A retired California hedge-funder, Steyer has poured his fortune into political advocacy on climate change and flirted with running for office.

Is he running?
No. He announced on January 9 that he would sit the race out. Lol jk! Steyer decided to get back into the race on July 9 after all.

Why does he want to run?
Impeachment, baby.

Who wants him to run?

Steyer has managed to gain ground among African American voters in South Carolina. It’s pretty threadbare beyond that.

Can he win the nomination?

Nope.

MICHAEL BENNET

Who is he?

The Coloradan was appointed to the Senate in 2009 and has since won reelection twice.

Is he running?

Yes. Bennet announced his campaign on May 2.

Why does he want to run?

Like his fellow Rocky Mountain State Democrat John Hickenlooper, Bennet presents himself as someone with experience in business and management who knows how to work with Republicans.

Who wants him to run?

Probably some of the same people who wanted Hickenlooper to run. Bennet gained new fans with a viral video of his impassioned rant about Ted Cruz during the January government shutdown.

Can he win?

No.