The 2020 U.S. Presidential Race: A Cheat Sheet

When new candidates enter the presidential race, they do so by announcing an “exploratory committee.” That’s pretty much always one of those weird fictions of politics: They’re not exploring anything; they’ve already decided to run.

But Justin Amash has always been different.

Amash, the Republican turned independent congressman from Michigan, announced last month that he was launching an exploratory committee to run for the Libertarian Party nomination for president. Barely two weeks later, on Saturday, Amash announced that he won’t run after all. “After much reflection, I’ve concluded that circumstances don’t lend themselves to my success as a candidate for president this year, and therefore I will not be a candidate,” Amash tweeted.

What a weird sequence! For one thing, third-party candidates in the U.S. practically cannot win. It’s the law—well, it’s a law in political science, named for Maurice Duverger, who formulated it. While Amash insisted that he was in the race to win it, realistic observers understood that though he might affect the political debate or even the outcome of the race, he was not going to be the next president. For another, it’s hard to imagine what Amash learned in the last fortnight about his chances that he couldn’t have considered in mid-April.

Amash’s presumptive entry set off extensive scrutiny about how a third-party candidacy might sway the race: Would he take more votes away from Donald Trump or Joe Biden? Could Amash garner enough votes in his home state, a potentially decisive swing state, to decide the presidency? My colleague Abdallah Fayyad examined these theories in smart detail. Amash’s exit will at least relieve Biden supporters who were terrified that the Libertarian would play spoiler, though it’s not clear how much of a prospect that ever really was.

But Amash’s withdrawal could be a pivotal moment for the Libertarian Party. After years of toiling at 0.5 percent of the popular vote or less, the party has had a breakthrough the past two cycles, both times with former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson atop the ticket. In 2012, the ticket drew 1 percent; in 2016, with widely loathed candidates atop both major-party tickets, Johnson drew 3.3 percent.

The Libertarian vote was almost certainly going to dip in 2020: The stakes of this election are different, the Democratic candidate is different, and the pandemic complicates third-party bids. Still, a high-profile candidate could have drawn on that momentum. Without Amash, the Libertarian Party probably doesn’t have that. The second-highest-profile contender was, uh, Lincoln Chafee, and he dropped out in early April, citing the pandemic. It’s never too late to get back in and turn the Libertarian Party into the vehicle for mandatory metric-system adoption, though.

Should there be new developments in the race going forward, this cheat sheet will be updated.

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The Democrats

JOE BIDEN

Who is he?

Don’t play coy. You know the former vice president, senator from Delaware, and recurring Onion character.

Is he running?

Yes. After a long series of hesitations, Biden announced his campaign on April 25, 2019.

Why does he want to run?

Biden has wanted to be president since roughly forever, and he thinks he might be the best bet to win back blue-collar voters and defeat President Trump in 2020. (Trump reportedly agrees.)

Who wants him to run?

Biden’s sell is all about electability, and his dominant win in South Carolina—after a poor showing in the other early states—rallied the Democratic establishment to his side.

Can he win the nomination?

Indeed, he will.

BERNIE SANDERS

Who is he?

If you didn’t know the Vermont senator and self-described democratic socialist before his runner-up finish in the 2016 Democratic primary, you do now.

Is he running?

No. Sanders became the last Democratic rival to drop out, conceding the nomination to Biden on April 8, 2020.

Why did he want to run?

For the same reasons he wanted to run in 2016, and the same reasons he’s always run for office: Sanders is passionate about redistributing wealth, fighting inequality, and creating a bigger social-safety net.

Who wanted him to run?

Many of the same people who supported him last time, plus a few converts, minus those who are supporting Sanders-adjacent candidates like Elizabeth Warren or Tulsi Gabbard.

Could he have won the nomination?

It sure seemed like it there for a bit, huh? The parlor game of wondering if a few different choices—attacking Joe Biden head-on, for example—might have carried Sanders to victory will continue for months if not years.

MICHAEL BLOOMBERG

Who is he?

The billionaire former mayor of New York, Bloomberg is a Democrat turned Republican turned independent turned Democrat again.

Is he running?

No longer. He ended his bid the day after a disappointing finish on Super Tuesday, having collected only a few dozen delegates.

Why did he want to run?

He was convinced that he’d be better and more competent at the job than anyone else, and he really wanted to light some money on fire. Bloomberg’s bid centered on his pet issues of gun control, climate change, and fighting the more fiscally liberal wing of the Democratic Party tooth and silver-plated nail.

Who wanted him to run?

What, was his considerable ego not enough? Though his tenure as mayor is generally well regarded, it’s unclear what Bloomberg’s Democratic constituency was beyond other wealthy, socially liberal, and fiscally conservative types, and it’s not as if he needed their money to run.

Could he have won the nomination?

Apparently not.

TOM STEYER

Who is he?

A retired California hedge-funder, Steyer has poured his fortune into political advocacy on climate change and flirted with running for office.

Is he running?

Not anymore. He dropped out after finishing third and earning no delegates in South Carolina on February 29, 2020.

Why did he want to run?
Impeachment, baby.

Who wanted him to run?

Steyer managed to gain ground among African American voters in South Carolina. It was pretty threadbare beyond that.

Could he have won the nomination?

Nope.