The 2020 U.S. Presidential Race: A Cheat Sheet

Oh, you thought you could safely forget about all this?

No dice. Like the mafia—but with more arcane and toxic alliances, worse cuisine, and more casualties—the 2020 presidential race pulls you back in, just when you thought you were out.

The latest move comes from Justin Amash, the Michigan member of the House of Representatives who announced Tuesday that he’s forming an exploratory committee to run for the Libertarian Party nomination for president.

Amash is an interesting figure: a Republican elected in the Tea Party wave of 2010, who turned out to be too true to ostensible Tea Party principles for most Republicans, then left the Republican Party in 2019 and was the only non-Democrat to vote to impeach President Donald Trump. But his run for president isn’t likely to matter at all in November, except insofar as it makes it more likely that Republicans pick up his seat in the House. Unless, of course, it matters a great deal. That’s how third-party runs always are: They’re mostly statements of principle and defiance, but in rare cases they can actually swing an election, when the vote is very close—see, arguably, 2000 or 2016.

But several factors make Amash’s path to electoral relevance especially challenging. One, he’s getting a late start. Gary Johnson, the Libertarian Party’s 2016 nominee, launched his campaign in January of that year. Johnson launched his 2012 campaign in April 2011. Amash has been rumored as a potential libertarian candidate for months, but he’s only beginning now, and he’s doing it in the midst of a pandemic that has halted all traditional campaigning. (Lincoln Chafee, who had been the highest-profile contender for the libertarian nomination, dropped out earlier this month, citing the difficulty of connecting with voters amid COVID-19.)

Two, even if the timing were better, the size of Amash’s constituency is not clear. His politics may just be too idiosyncratic (and deeply held) for him to attract much of a following—even by third-party standards—in this political environment. It’s hard to imagine Amash peeling off too many Trump votes. Never-Trump conservatives simply aren’t a substantial constituency, given that the president has largely conquered the Republican Party; what Amash would offer Trump-supporting but Trump-skeptical voters is unclear. Insofar as Never-Trumpers still exist, many seem to have coalesced around Joe Biden—not because they love Biden’s politics, but because they want to beat Trump. They’re unlikely to switch over to a doomed statement campaign.

Amash won an outpouring of praise from Democrats for his vote to impeach Trump, but he is unlikely to gain a real foothold among them, either. They might have loved his defiance of the president, but they’ll feel differently when they realize that he truly is a doctrinaire libertarian and hates the Affordable Care Act.

Set aside the particularities of Amash’s bid: Third-party candidates don’t usually make a splash anyway. They struggle to get on the ballot, a challenge only exacerbated by the pandemic. And as CNN’s Harry Enten notes, they tend to fade as the election approaches, and Amash is barely registering in polls now.

The one caveat is that it doesn’t take a whole lot of votes for a third-party candidate to sway an election. Consider Michigan, where Trump edged out Hillary Clinton by fewer than 10,000 votes in 2016. The state is expected to be close, and potentially decisive, again in 2020. It also happens to be Amash’s home state, and thus one where he might do especially well. So Amash’s race could tip the outcome of the 2020 presidential race.

It just probably won’t.

Should there be new developments in the race going forward, this cheat sheet will continue to be updated.

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The Democrats

JOE BIDEN

Who is he?

Don’t play coy. You know the former vice president, senator from Delaware, and recurring Onion character.

Is he running?

Yes. After a long series of hesitations, Biden announced his campaign on April 25, 2019.

Why does he want to run?

Biden has wanted to be president since roughly forever, and he thinks he might be the best bet to win back blue-collar voters and defeat President Trump in 2020. (Trump reportedly agrees.)

Who wants him to run?

Biden’s sell is all about electability, and his dominant win in South Carolina—after a poor showing in the other early states—rallied the Democratic establishment to his side.

Can he win the nomination?

Indeed, he will.

BERNIE SANDERS

Who is he?

If you didn’t know the Vermont senator and self-described democratic socialist before his runner-up finish in the 2016 Democratic primary, you do now.

Is he running?

No. Sanders became the last Democratic rival to drop out, conceding the nomination to Biden on April 8, 2020.

Why did he want to run?

For the same reasons he wanted to run in 2016, and the same reasons he’s always run for office: Sanders is passionate about redistributing wealth, fighting inequality, and creating a bigger social-safety net.

Who wanted him to run?

Many of the same people who supported him last time, plus a few converts, minus those who are supporting Sanders-adjacent candidates like Elizabeth Warren or Tulsi Gabbard.

Could he have won the nomination?

It sure seemed like it there for a bit, huh? The parlor game of wondering if a few different choices—attacking Joe Biden head-on, for example—might have carried Sanders to victory will continue for months if not years.

MICHAEL BLOOMBERG

Who is he?

The billionaire former mayor of New York, Bloomberg is a Democrat turned Republican turned independent turned Democrat again.

Is he running?

No longer. He ended his bid the day after a disappointing finish on Super Tuesday, having collected only a few dozen delegates.

Why did he want to run?

He was convinced that he’d be better and more competent at the job than anyone else, and he really wanted to light some money on fire. Bloomberg’s bid centered on his pet issues of gun control, climate change, and fighting the more fiscally liberal wing of the Democratic Party tooth and silver-plated nail.

Who wanted him to run?

What, was his considerable ego not enough? Though his tenure as mayor is generally well regarded, it’s unclear what Bloomberg’s Democratic constituency was beyond other wealthy, socially liberal, and fiscally conservative types, and it’s not as if he needed their money to run.

Could he have won the nomination?

Apparently not.

TOM STEYER

Who is he?

A retired California hedge-funder, Steyer has poured his fortune into political advocacy on climate change and flirted with running for office.

Is he running?

Not anymore. He dropped out after finishing third and earning no delegates in South Carolina on February 29, 2020.

Why did he want to run?
Impeachment, baby.

Who wanted him to run?

Steyer managed to gain ground among African American voters in South Carolina. It was pretty threadbare beyond that.

Could he have won the nomination?

Nope.